Somalia Releases Gu 2026 Seasonal Climate Outlook Highlighting Increased Rainfall and Flood Risks

Gu 2026 SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR SOMALIA Mogadishu (Somalia), 12 February 2026: The Federal Government of Somalia, through the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, including the Permanent Representative of Somalia to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) in collaboration with National Institutions, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO-SWALIM), and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), has released the Gu (March–April–May) 2026 Seasonal Climate Outlook to inform preparedness, anticipatory action, and response planning. The outlook is issued against a degraded humanitarian baseline, following a failed Deyr 2025 season, a harsh and prolonged Jilaal dry period, and an evolving drought that has already severely affected livelihoods across many parts of the country. Key Findings and Take Away Message of the Gu (March-April-May) 2026 Seasonal Outlook · The Gu 2026 season is likely to bring wetter-than-average rainfall across much of Somalia, offering potential short-term relief from prolonged dry conditions. However, localized pockets of drier-than-average rainfall may occur in Awdal, Bari, and parts of Lower and Middle Juba, underscoring continued spatial variability and uncertainty (see Fig. 1a). · The Gu onset is most likely in the second half of April, with risk of false starts and early dry spells. · Above-average air temperatures are expected across most of the country throughout the Gu season. Higher temperatures may increase evapotranspiration, water demand, and heat stress, potentially reducing the effectiveness of rainfall for crop and pasture recovery (see Fig 1b). · Although low river levels may constrain early irrigation, the risk of localized flooding later in the season is elevated, particularly in the Juba–Shabelle river basins, where above-average rainfall is likely. Heavy upstream rains could exacerbate flood risk in downstream and floodplain area. one title

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