Forecast: 10-18 May 2024

The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is as follows:Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 m and 150 mm is likely over some isolated areas over Jubaland. Based on consensus such heavy rainfall is anticipated over Kismaayo, Afmadow district in Lower Juba region and, Bardheere and Ceel Waaqdistricts in Gedo region..Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over very isolated areas in Jubaland, Dinsoor and Qansax Dheere districts in Bay region, Sablaale, Baraawe, Wanla Weyne and Afgoye districts in Lower Juba region, Jowhar and Balcaddistricts in Middle Shabelle regionLight cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mmis forecast over most other places in Jubaland, South West, Hirshabelle and Galgaduud. Isolated light rains are also likely over some areas in the northern parts of the country particularly the windward sides of the mountainous and hilly areas. Such rainsare likely over Borama district and southern parts of both Baki and Zeylac districts in Awdal region, and Qandala district in Bari region.Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas of Puntland and Somaliland. Specifically, such dry conditions are likely over Mudug, Nugaal, Bari, Sool, Sanaag, Togdheer and Woqqoyi Galbeed. Some forecasts also anticipate dry conditions over some areas in Hirshabelle and Bakool region.Ministry Of Environment and Climate Change-SomaliaDepartment Of Meteorology13-20 April forecast

The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast temperature (Map 2) is as followsTemperature ForecastModerately high temperatures of above 35°C are expected over Hiraan region, and most of the inland parts of the following regions: Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud and Mudug. Such moderately high temperatures are also likely over Garbahaarey, Luuq and Doolow districts in Gedo region, and Waajid, Rab Dhuure and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region. In the north such temperatures are likely over Garowe district in Nugal region, Iskushuban district in Bari region, Laas Anod and Xudun districts in Sool region, northern parts of Cel Afweyn district in Sanaag region, Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region and northern parts of Baki district in Awdal region.ConclusionDuring the week between 13 and 20 April 2024, and based on Chirps GFS, light to moderate rains is predicted over several isolated areas in Jubaland, Southwest and Galgaduud with dry conditions in Somaliland and Puntland. It is important to point out that ICPAC’s forecast based on WRF anticipates wetter conditions particularly over Gedo region. region indicates the presence of heavy rainfall producing conditions